The United Kingdom will hold a national election by the end of January 2025. The latest polling data, and local council election results on Friday, suggest that the center-left Labour Party opposition will unseat the governing center-right Conservative Party and win a massive majority in Parliament.
But spoilers lurk.
One such spoiler comes in the form of Nigel Farage’s Reform party. The original agitator of Britain’s Brexit departure from the European Union, Reform has just one member of Parliament in the 650-seat House of Commons. While the party appears dormant at present, any mobilization later this year might allow it to sever otherwise Conservative-leaning votes in key swing constituencies (the U.K. equivalent to congressional districts). This would be a problem for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives in that the polls show Labour with a 20-point lead.
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