Xavier Becerra entered California's gubernatorial race as an afterthought. By late March, his campaign was hemorrhaging in the polls at just 3%, trailing a crowded Democratic field that included former congressman Eric Swalwell, former congresswoman Katie Porter, and billionaire activist Tom Steyer. Political insiders were quietly suggesting he drop out.
The mild-mannered 68-year-old former Biden health secretary seemed poorly positioned for a moment when California Democrats craved fighters willing to take on Donald Trump head-on. The party had shifted toward anti-establishment outsiders and younger challengers. Becerra, a career politician with a resume that included the state legislature, Congress, and the California attorney general's office, didn't fit the profile.
Then April arrived, and everything changed.
Swalwell's campaign imploded under sexual misconduct allegations that forced him to withdraw from the race and resign from Congress. The San Francisco-area representative denied the allegations, but the damage was irreversible. In the sudden vacuum, Becerra's numbers surged dramatically. Voters looking for a safe alternative found in him something they hadn't seen before: a proven commodity with genuine government experience.
"He had the resume. He was known to voters. So he was an alternative to turn to that made sense," said Christian Grose, a University of Southern California political science professor who had studied the race closely.
Becerra's comeback also served a deeper strategic purpose for the Democratic Party. With roughly 60% of California voters typically backing Democratic candidates, party insiders had grown panicked about a scenario where two Republicans could finish first and second in the state's top-two primary system, locking Democrats out of the general election entirely. As that nightmare scenario loomed, moderate and centrist Democrats gravitating toward Becerra as insurance against catastrophe.
The transformation proved particularly potent among Latino voters. Just before this week's primary, a poll conducted by professors from three California universities showed approximately 37% of Latino voters supporting Becerra. The two Republican candidates, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton, each drew far less support in that demographic at 17% and 12% respectively.
His personal narrative resonated where his government credentials alone had not. Born in Sacramento to a Mexican immigrant family, Becerra wove stories throughout his campaign about his working-class roots and his parents' journey. In an era when the Trump administration is executing mass deportation campaigns targeting undocumented Latinos, his background struck a chord with voters who saw themselves reflected in his life.
Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist specializing in Latino voters, observed something striking in conversations with Becerra supporters. When they cited his "experience," they weren't primarily discussing his congressional tenure or cabinet service. They were describing his life itself.
"They would say things like, 'He's the son of a construction worker. He did construction work himself. He represented and lived in East LA.' They're like, 'This guy's one of us,'" Madrid recounted.
That working-class appeal extended beyond Latino communities. Dwayne Murphy, a 35-year-old Amazon delivery driver from Irvine, initially considered billionaire Tom Steyer before switching to Becerra. Murphy cited Becerra's promises to support working families and expand homeownership opportunities. "We're just like the majority of people in California trying to find ways to survive and grow," he said.
Becerra advanced to the general election after projections indicated he would finish in the top two of the primary. Supporters of his rivals had attacked him for accepting campaign funding from corporate interests like Chevron, branding him a corporate tool. The criticism failed to gain traction with voters responding to a different kind of authenticity.
If he wins in November, Becerra would become California's first Latino governor since 1875, when Romualdo Pacheco briefly held the office during a period when California was still Mexican territory.
"California, we're just getting started," Becerra posted on X after emerging as the primary frontrunner. "Let's hit the ground running. Let's go win this thing."
Author James Rodriguez: "From invisible to inevitable in a matter of weeks, Becerra's resurrection proves that in politics, timing and relatability can matter far more than résumé lines."
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