Hundreds of cargo ships sit idle in the Persian Gulf, their captains paralyzed by fear of Iranian retaliation. The Strait of Hormuz, which funnels roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil, remains effectively closed despite a ceasefire deal that explicitly required it to reopen.
Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei signaled Thursday that his government intends to weaponize control of the waterway. In his first public statement since the ceasefire took effect Tuesday, Khamenei declared Iran would "bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz into a new stage" during upcoming negotiations with the U.S., scheduled for Saturday in Islamabad.
The disconnect between the ceasefire agreement and reality on the water is stark. While Washington claims the strait is "wide open," U.S. officials acknowledge that ships are simply too intimidated to move. "Iran has threatened and coerced everybody," one official said, adding that the administration is weighing steps to push vessel operators forward.
Sultan Al Jaber, head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, broke the diplomatic silence Thursday morning with a blunt LinkedIn post. "The Strait of Hormuz is not open," he wrote. "Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled. Iran has made clear through both its statements and actions that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage."
Nearly 20,000 mariners remain stranded in the region, according to the International Maritime Organization. Shipping companies face an impossible choice: attempt passage and risk Iranian attack, or wait indefinitely while oil prices climb.
The toll demand
Iran is not merely blockading the strait; it is allegedly demanding payment for passage. According to the Financial Times, Tehran is asking for $1 per barrel of oil transiting the waterway, paid in cryptocurrency. The demand would shatter international norms of free navigation and lock in elevated global energy prices indefinitely.
Oil prices reflected the chaos Thursday, trading near $100 per barrel and remaining substantially above pre-war levels. The longer Hormuz stays closed, the greater the pressure on economies worldwide that depend on steady energy supplies.
Khamenei's message came during a commemoration marking 40 days since his father's assassination by Israel on the opening day of the regional war. He framed Iran as the conflict's "definite victor" while signaling no retreat from contested positions. "We will certainly not leave the aggressors," he said. "We will demand compensation for all damages and the price for the blood of martyrs and the compensation of the wounded."
The Iranian leader's refusal to back down raises questions about whether the ceasefire will survive. If Israel continues military operations in Lebanon, Iran could maintain the Hormuz closure indefinitely, effectively holding global energy markets hostage while negotiations unfold.
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