A ceasefire declared just days ago is already unraveling under the weight of contradictory claims, continued fighting, and fundamental disagreements about what was actually agreed to.
The U.S., Israel, and Iran all say a ceasefire is in effect. They do not agree on almost anything else.
Negotiations are scheduled to resume Friday in Islamabad, but the three parties are working from completely different understandings of the terms. Attacks have continued on multiple fronts, and military commanders on all sides are signaling they remain combat-ready.
What They Claim vs. What's Actually Happening
President Trump declared Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened as part of the ceasefire agreement. His exact words: "the strait is opened." Hours later, Iran's foreign minister issued a starkly different version. Ships would need to coordinate with Iran's military before passage, with strict limits on traffic. Iranian media then reported that vessels would be charged tolls.
Trump later told ABC News the U.S. and Iran might jointly operate a toll system. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed the original agreement was simply that the strait would open. The gap between these positions remains unbridged.
Pakistan's government announced the ceasefire extended to Lebanon. Netanyahu flatly rejected that claim and ordered intensified attacks there. The Lebanese Red Cross reported more than 80 killed and 200 wounded in the first hours after the supposed ceasefire took effect. Iranian officials called this a violation that could trigger the closure of the strait and collapse the agreement entirely. The U.S. has not clarified its position.
In the first 12 hours of the ceasefire, attacks struck oil facilities in Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait. Pakistan's prime minister warned the strikes "undermine the spirit of peace process."
Iran claimed its missile and drone attacks after the ceasefire announcement were retaliatory strikes for U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, including an oil refinery. A U.S. defense official denied the Americans or Israelis conducted the refinery strike. Hegseth suggested the Iranian attacks continued because of communication failures among Iranian commanders. "It takes time for a ceasefire to take hold," he said.
The fighting has reduced significantly but has not stopped.
Iran's Negotiating List vs. Trump's Revised Positions
Trump stated that Iran's 10-point list for ending the war represented a "workable basis on which to negotiate." Those conditions, according to Iran's security council, included Iranian control of the strait, uranium enrichment rights, complete sanctions removal, and war compensation.
Vice President Vance immediately contradicted this, saying some Iranian regime members "are lying" about what's been agreed.
Trump then posted on Truth Social that the U.S. 15-point proposal, which Iran had previously rejected, formed the negotiating foundation. He said there was already agreement on many points. He made clear the U.S. will block uranium enrichment and won't permit Iran to maintain highly enriched uranium stockpiles. "There will be no enrichment of Uranium," Trump wrote.
He did say the U.S. would discuss "tariff and sanctions relief" with Iran during negotiations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham have expressed deep skepticism about the agreement. Graham posted on X that the negotiating document contained "troubling aspects" and demanded that administration negotiators explain how any deal would meet U.S. national security interests regarding Iran.
Military Postures Remain Aggressive
Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine described the ceasefire as "a pause," not an end to hostilities. Hegseth said the U.S. military would remain positioned to resume combat "in a moment's notice."
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sent the same message Wednesday: "We are with our hand on the trigger, ready to respond to any attack with more force."
Vice President Vance is expected to lead the U.S. negotiating team in Islamabad. The parties remain separated by vast distances on core issues: compensation for Iran's rebuilding, eliminating Iran's nuclear weapons program, and ending the Israel-Hezbollah war.
The ceasefire holds only by the thinnest thread of mutual agreement that fighting has paused. Whether it will survive the Friday negotiations, much less lead to a lasting peace, remains entirely unclear.
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