Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that prolonged conflict in Iran would substantially benefit Russia at Ukraine's expense, citing surging oil prices, sanctions relief, and the diversion of Western military support away from Kyiv.
In an interview after returning from a Middle East tour, Zelensky laid out the strategic calculus bluntly: "I am sure Russia wants long war. They have benefits: The U.S. is focusing on the Middle East and may decrease military help to Ukraine. Sanctions are partially lifted. I see only benefits for Russia from the war with Iran continuing."
The concern cuts to the heart of Ukraine's supply chain vulnerabilities. When asked whether a prolonged Iran conflict would hamper weapons deliveries to Kyiv, Zelensky said: "I am not just concerned, I am sure we will have such challenges. Absolutely." The shortage threatens air defense interceptors and other systems Ukraine describes as desperately needed.
Zelensky also criticized recent U.S. sanctions waivers on Russian oil sales, viewing them as a counterproductive response to energy market pressures. "If now they get more money from energy, it doesn't help us," he said.
The Intelligence Picture
During his regional visits to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Jordan, Zelensky claimed Ukrainian officials shared intelligence with Middle Eastern leaders detailing Russian support for Iran's military operations. The evidence includes satellite imagery that Russia allegedly provided to Iran for targeting purposes.
"I think Russia is supporting Iran directly, 100%. The same format of sharing satellite images like they did in the case of Ukraine," Zelensky said, drawing parallels to Russian targeting practices in the Ukraine war.
He also said Russia has transferred operational know-how, including tactics for short-range attacks using FPV drones, derived from its conflict with Ukraine. Ukrainian military experts have been deployed to several countries in the Middle East over the past month to assist with drone defense systems.
Zelensky advocated for a negotiated end to the Iran conflict during his meetings. "Our advice, when they asked us, was to stop the war as soon as possible and sit for negotiations," he said, though he acknowledged that views among regional leaders diverged, with some favoring continued fighting and others seeking rapid de-escalation.
The Israel Question
Notably, Zelensky's trip did not include Israel. He said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not reached out to request Ukrainian assistance, despite other nations doing so.
The relationship between the two leaders appears strained. Zelensky revealed he has not spoken with Netanyahu in two years and said it was "up to Israel to decide" whether to pursue cooperation. When pressed on whether Netanyahu supports Putin, Zelensky demurred: "My feeling is that Netanyahu always wants to balance between Russia and Ukraine, even when Russia is helping Iran."
Yet Zelensky suggested openness to collaboration, noting potential areas of mutual need. "We have what he needs and he has what we need. We have big deficit with air defense. But we have things Israel doesn't have and we are ready for this dialogue."
Meanwhile, the focus on Iran has effectively halted diplomatic momentum on Ukraine. Ukrainian officials say there has been no progress in the peace process. A senior Ukrainian delegation met Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Miami ten days earlier, but the meeting produced no concrete results.
Zelensky expressed anxiety about the Trump administration's endgame strategy once the Iran situation stabilizes. He fears pressure to accept territorial concessions to broker a quick ceasefire. "My concern is that they see only one way to do it," he said, referring to what he views as Washington's preference for forcing Kyiv to cede territory rather than confronting Russian aggression directly.
"Why do we have to pay for this? We are not the aggressors. They don't see another way to stop Putin other than withdrawing Ukrainian troops from our territory," Zelensky told Axios, emphasizing that such a settlement would undermine Ukraine's long-term security.
European and Ukrainian officials increasingly worry the Trump administration intends to ease pressure on Russia. Those tensions surfaced in a contentious exchange between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas during last Friday's G7 meeting.
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