President Trump's shifting rhetoric on Iran has created confusion that extends well beyond foreign capitals and Wall Street trading floors. His own advisers say they are frequently uncertain about his actual intentions, leaving them to read between the lines of his public statements and social media posts for clues about his strategy.
The uncertainty stems from Trump's tendency to improvise rather than execute a predetermined plan, according to multiple people who speak regularly with the president. He apparently enjoys keeping options open, testing different approaches with various audiences, and waiting to see if opportunities emerge that he can exploit.
The lack of clarity has real consequences. Trump's offhand remarks and online postings can influence military operations and move financial markets, yet they often give way to contradictory signals without resolution.
Design or Disorder?
Some in Trump's circle defend the inconsistency as intentional strategy. Senator Lindsey Graham, who spoke with Trump on Monday, told reporters the unpredictability is the point: "That's the plan, for you to not have a clue."
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made a similar argument Tuesday when asked why Trump was publicly discussing a potential ground invasion. The unpredictability serves a purpose, Hegseth said, preventing adversaries from knowing what the U.S. will or won't do.
Yet a former U.S. official offered a different assessment: "They had a plan for the first week and since then, they are making the plan up as they go along."
One senior adviser acknowledged the confusion directly: "Nobody knows in the end what he's really thinking."
Those in Trump's orbit describe a pattern where advisers become convinced at one moment that he's preparing for major escalation, only to later believe he's seeking a quick resolution. An administration official described the approach as "12-dimensional chess," noting that Trump contradicts himself deliberately so no one can predict his next move.
Complicating matters further, Trump appears to be consulting more frequently with hawks like Senator Graham and conservative commentator Mark Levin rather than longtime advisers who oppose escalation.
Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates are among the allies expressing concern about Trump's apparent interest in withdrawing soon and declaring victory. One Trump adviser noted the Saudis are aligned with the hawkish voices pushing for more aggressive action, saying they want the U.S. to "finish the job" against Iran completely.
Trump indicated Tuesday he could withdraw within "two or three weeks," and has been discussing exit strategies with advisers. Some discussions have centered on potentially leaving with the Strait of Hormuz closed and without a negotiated agreement in place.
Meanwhile, Trump is simultaneously moving additional military forces into the region, including buildup that could support a ground invasion, even though advisers say he opposes boots-on-the-ground operations.
U.S. officials are exploring what some call "mowing the grass" as a post-withdrawal option, conducting periodic strikes against Iranian capabilities after major combat operations conclude rather than attempting complete destruction.
Trump is scheduled to address the nation on Iran at 9 p.m. ET Wednesday, offering another opportunity to clarify his position, though advisers have little reason for confidence that clarity will emerge.
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