Three scenarios for Iowa: Is there an upset in the cards?

Monday’s Iowa caucuses will give us our first tangible results by which to judge the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

No more polls, debate spin rooms, or pundit speculation — well, all those things will continue, but they soon will be assessed against real voting results.

Essentially all of those aforementioned polls project that former President Donald Trump will win walking away. He’s at 52% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, up 33.8 points. Three of the last four statewide surveys show Trump receiving a majority of the vote, the biggest being 55%.

But candidates like to say the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. That sets up three possible scenarios for Iowa, the nation’s first contest in the Republican race to challenge President Joe Biden.

An upset — by somebody

The pollsters haven’t had their best overall
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